Sunday, June 13, 2010
RELEASE THE KRAKEN
June 13/2010-10:06 PM EST.
By : Isaac N.
Hurricane season is upon us, with this season's forecast looking quite heavy. Here comes the warm water into the gulf region, below is a screen-cap of the last 12 months as an animation. The link to see the whole thing is at the bottom of the post . Not looking good.
Above are the fluctuating temps of the G.O.M . Notice it's much colder in 2010, then look at the first pic and animation. there is a tremendous difference in the water temps this year. As warm water invades the Gulf, and warmer air masses move in from the top, the currents produced by the massive temperature differentials between the water and the atmosphere is going to produce some big storms.
The ink isn’t even dry yet on the 2009 hurricane season summaries, but the Colorado State University team of William Gray and Philip Klotzbach already has come out with its 2010 prediction.
The team is calling for above-average activity, with 11 to 16 named storms, 6 to 8 hurricanes, and 3 to 5 major hurricanes, at Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale. The historical average is 9.6, 5.9 and 2.3.
The team’s forecast summary (PDF), posted Nov. 19, notes its December 2008 forecast called for 14, 7 and 3 in 2009. The season ended up with 9, 3 and 2.
“We anticipate the current El Niño event to dissipate by the 2010 hurricane season and warm sea surface temperatures are likely to continue being present in the tropical and North Atlantic during 2010 – conditions that contribute to an above-average season,” Gray said in a release.
The team always modifies its forecasts before and during the season, and this year, for the first time, they’re hedging their bets even more, offering ranges instead of specific numbers.
They said they’ll use hard numbers for the rest of the forecasts, set for April 7, June 2 and Aug. 4. The season runs June 1 to Nov. 30.
The team also said there’s a 64 percent chance at least one major hurricane will make landfall on the U.S. coastline, compared to a historical average of 52 percent.
For the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida peninsula, the probability of a major hurricane making landfall is 40 percent, compared to a historical 31 percent.
The team also offers a database giving probabilities that a storm will hit your particular county or region.
It would be my advice at this point, if you live on the Gulf coast, now would be a good time to prepare to leave.