Recent Coronal Mass Ejections predicted in 2006

                Been a little hot lately hasn't it..? Getting sunburned a little quicker recently..? I'm sure you have been reading about it, power grids having problems....Russia under intense heat...etc,


 Seen this video of the beaching in Pakistan, from maybe 2 weeks ago...? This is what happens when the magnetic fields start to shift from the Sun's influence. We will probably see a lot more of this.





                       .....Here's the link to the NASA site with the warnings :

                           http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/index.html

...............ok..This article was written almost 5 years ago.



  03.15.06 Researchers say a storm is coming--the most intense solar maximum in fifty years.      It's official: Solar minimum has arrived. Sunspots have all but vanished. Solar flares are nonexistent. The sun is utterly quiet.

Like the quiet before a storm.

   Recently researchers announced that a storm is coming--the most intense solar maximum in fifty years. The prediction comes from a team led by Mausumi Dikpati of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). "The next sunspot cycle will be 30% to 50% stronger than the previous one," she says. If correct, the years ahead could produce a burst of solar activity second only to the historic Solar Max of 1958.
That was a solar maximum. The Space Age was just beginning: Sputnik was launched in Oct. 1957 and Explorer 1 (the first US satellite) in Jan. 1958. In 1958 you couldn't tell that a solar storm was underway by looking at the bars on your cell phone; cell phones didn't exist. Even so, people knew something big was happening when Northern Lights were sighted three times in Mexico. A similar maximum now would be noticed by its effect on cell phones, GPS, weather satellites and many other modern technologies.

    Right: Intense auroras over Fairbanks, Alaska, in 1958.

   Dikpati's prediction is unprecedented. In nearly-two centuries since the 11-year sunspot cycle was discovered, scientists have struggled to predict the size of future maxima--and failed. Solar maxima can be intense, as in 1958, or barely detectable, as in 1805, obeying no obvious pattern.


The key to the mystery, Dikpati realized years ago, is a conveyor belt on the sun.


We have something similar here on Earth--the Great Ocean Conveyor Belt, popularized in the sci-fi movie The Day After Tomorrow. It is a network of currents that carry water and heat from ocean to ocean--see the diagram below. In the movie, the Conveyor Belt stopped and threw the world's weather into chaos.

                                             Above: Earth's Great Ocean Conveyor Belt.

   The sun's conveyor belt is a current, not of water, but of electrically-conducting gas. It flows in a loop from the sun's equator to the poles and back again. Just as the Great Ocean Conveyor Belt controls weather on Earth, this solar conveyor belt controls weather on the sun. Specifically, it controls the sunspot cycle.
Solar physicist David Hathaway of the National Space Science and Technology Center (NSSTC) explains: "First, remember what sunspots are--tangled knots of magnetism generated by the sun's inner dynamo. A typical sunspot exists for just a few weeks. Then it decays, leaving behind a 'corpse' of weak magnetic fields."
Enter the conveyor belt.


"The top of the conveyor belt skims the surface of the sun, sweeping up the magnetic fields of old, dead sunspots. The 'corpses' are dragged down at the poles to a depth of 200,000 km where the sun's magnetic dynamo can amplify them. Once the corpses (magnetic knots) are reincarnated (amplified), they become buoyant and float back to the surface." Presto--new sunspots!

Right: The sun's great conveyor belt. [Larger image]

All this happens with massive slowness. "It takes about 40 years for the belt to complete one loop," says Hathaway. The speed varies "anywhere from a 50-year pace (slow) to a 30-year pace (fast)."


When the belt is turning "fast," it means that lots of magnetic fields are being swept up, and that a future sunspot cycle is going to be intense. This is a basis for forecasting: "The belt was turning fast in 1986-1996," says Hathaway. "Old magnetic fields swept up then should re-appear as big sunspots in 2010-2011."
Like most experts in the field, Hathaway has confidence in the conveyor belt model and agrees with Dikpati that the next solar maximum should be a doozy. But he disagrees with one point. Dikpati's forecast puts Solar Max at 2012. Hathaway believes it will arrive sooner, in 2010 or 2011.


"History shows that big sunspot cycles 'ramp up' faster than small ones," he says. "I expect to see the first sunspots of the next cycle appear in late 2006 or 2007--and Solar Max to be underway by 2010 or 2011."


Who's right? Time will tell. Either way, a storm is coming.

More Information

Solar Minimum Has Arrived -- In 2006, the sunspot cycle has hit bottom. Scientists Issue Unprecedented Forecast of Next Sunspot Cycle -- NCAR press release. Scientists Gaze Inside Sun, Predict Strength of the Next Solar Cycle -- NASA press release. Who's Afraid of a Solar Flare? -- (Science@NASA) Solar activity can be surprisingly good for astronauts.

Feature Author: Dr. Tony Phillips
Feature Production Editor: Dr. Tony Phillips
Feature Production Credit: Science@NASA


http://www.nasa.gov/vision/universe/solarsystem/10mar_stormwarning.html
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Below are the various types of warnings and possible effects from solar storms.


SUMMARY: 245 MHz Radio Emission Solar Radio Emissions Daily summary of radio interference which can affect critical search and rescue frequencies.
Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA) Forecasts and Summaries The primary daily report prepared by SWPC. It provides a summary and analysis of solar and geomagnetic activity during the previous 24 hours, the most recent solar indices, and a forecast of activity and indices for the next 3 days.
Geophysical Alert Message (WWV) Forecasts and Summaries Issued every 3 hours (at 0000, 0300, 0600, 0900, 1200, 1500, 1800, and 2100 UTC). Updates are more frequent when activity warrants. Provides information about the current and predicted solar terrestrial conditions.
WATCH: Geomagnetic A-index of 20 or greater predicted Geomagnetic Storm Products Minor system effects.
WATCH: Geomagnetic A-index of 30 or greater predicted Geomagnetic Storm Products Weak power grid fluctuations, minor satellite operation impact. Possible high-latitude power systems affected, satellite drag effect, high-latitude HF radio, high-latitude aurora.
WATCH: Geomagnetic A-index of 50 or greater predicted Geomagnetic Storm Products High-latitude power systems affected, satellite drag effect, high-latitude HF radio, high-latitude aurora. Possible voltage problems, satellite surface charging, HF and low-frequency communication degraded, possible aurora near tropics.
WATCH: Geomagnetic A-Index of 100 or greater predicted Geomagnetic Storm Products Grid system can collapse, extensive satellite surface charging, extended degraded. HF communication and low-frequency navigation.
SUMMARY: 10 cm Radio Burst Solar Radio Emissions Proxy of solar EUV emission, important for satellite drag.
ALERT: Electron 2 MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1,000 pfu Solar Particles Possible differential charging and bulk charging effects on satellites.
Special Announcement News for all Users Information concerning SWPC data, products, and services. User Notes (SWPC's quarterly newsletter). E-mail notification will be sent when the latest version is posted to our web site.
WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 Geomagnetic Storm Products Weak power grid fluctuations, minor satellite operations impact.
ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 6 Geomagnetic Storm Products High latitude power systems affected, satellite drag effect, high-latitude HF radio, high-latitude aurora.
WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 6 Geomagnetic Storm Products High latitude power systems affected, satellite drag effect, high-latitude HF radio, high-latitude aurora.
ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 7 Geomagnetic Storm Products Power system voltage effects, satellite surface charging, HF radio, mid-latitude aurora.
WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 7 Geomagnetic Storm Products Power system voltage effects, satellite surface charging, HF radio, mid-latitude aurora.
ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 8 Geomagnetic Storm Products Voltage problems, satellite surface charging, HF and low-frequency communication degraded, possible aurora near tropics.
ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 9 Geomagnetic Storm Products Grid System can collapse, extensive satellite surface charging, extended degraded. HF communication and low-frequency navigation.
SUMMARY: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse Geomagnetic Storm Products Marks the possible beginning of a geomagnetic storm.
SUMMARY: Proton Event 10 MeV Integral Flux exceeded 100 pfu Solar Radiation Storm Products Infrequent effects on HF through polar regions and satellite operations.
ALERT: Proton Event 10 MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1,000 pfu Solar Radiation Storm Products Degraded HF at polar regions and navigation position errors, satellite effects on imaging systems and solar panel currents, significant radiation hazard to astronauts on EVA and high-latitude aircraft passengers.
SUMMARY: Proton Event 10 MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1,000 pfu Solar Radiation Storm Products Degraded HF at polar regions and navigation position errors, satellite effects on imaging systems and solar panel currents, significant radiation hazard to astronauts on EVA and high-latitude aircraft passengers.
ALERT: Proton Event 10 MeV Integral Flux exceeded 10,000 pfu Solar Radiation Storm Products Blackout of HF through the polar regions and navigation position errors over several days, satellite effects degraded imaging systems and memory device problems, high radiation risk to astronauts on EVA and high-latitude aircraft passengers.
SUMMARY: Proton Event 10 MeV Integral Flux exceeded 10,000 pfu Solar Radiation Storm Products Blackout of HF through the polar regions and navigation position errors over several days, satellite effects degraded imaging systems and memory device problems, high radiation risk to astronauts on EVA and high-latitude aircraft passengers.
ALERT: Proton Event 10 MeV Integral Flux exceeded 100,000 pfu Solar Radiation Storm Products No HF in the polar regions and position errors make navigation operations extremely difficult, loss of some satellites and memory impacts cause loss of control, unavoidable high radiation risk for astronauts on EVA and high-latitude aircraft passengers.
SUMMARY: Proton Event 10 MeV Integral Flux exceeded 100,000 pfu Solar Radiation Storm Products No HF in the polar regions and position errors make navigation operations extremely difficult, loss of some satellites and memory impacts cause loss of control, unavoidable high radiation risk for astronauts on EVA and high-latitude aircraft passengers.
WARNING: Proton 100 MeV Integral Flux above 1 pfu expected Solar Radiation Storm Products Possible minor impacts on HF through polar regions and satellite operations.
Solar & Geophysical Activity Summary (SGAS) Forecasts and Summaries A daily brief list of solar and geophysical events for the previous UTC day.
WARNING: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected Geomagnetic Storm Products Marks the possible beginning of an expected geomagnetic storm.
Space Weather Bulletin Advisories Issued when conditions occur that are of interest to the public.
Space Weather Outlook Advisories Issued Tuesdays, general descriptions of conditions during the past week and an outlook for the next 7 days.
ALERT: Type II Radio Emission Solar Radio Emissions Occur in loose association with major solar flares and are indicative of a shock wave moving through the solar atmosphere.
ALERT: Type IV Radio Emission Solar Radio Emissions Associated with some major solar flare events beginning 10 to 20 minutes after the flare maximum, and can last for hours.
Preliminary Report and Forecast of Solar Geophysical Data (The Weekly) Forecasts and Summaries Space Weather highlights from the previous week and an outlook for the next 27 days. It also includes tables and plots, data, activity, and reports. Note: Email notification will be sent when the latest version is posted to our web site.
ALERT: X-ray Flux exceeded M5 Radio Blackout Products Loss of HF and degradation of low frequency navigation signals for tens of minutes.
SUMMARY: X-Ray Event exceeded M5 Radio Blackout Products Loss of HF and degradation of low frequency navigation signals for tens of minutes.
SUMMARY: X-Ray Event exceeded X1 Radio Blackout Products Wide area loss of HF and low-frequency navigation signals for one hour.
SUMMARY: X-Ray Event exceeded X10 Radio Blackout Products Lost HF and outages of low-frequency navigation signals for one to two hours.
SUMMARY: X-Ray Event exceeded X20 Radio Blackout Products Complete HF blackouts and outages on low-frequency navigation signals for several hours