My thoughts about the static kill operation.

Just some observations ....

The static kill procedure.
 

   The BOP stack and the added " 3 ram capping stack "..lol...I love the ala' minute names, guys.....Ken, tuck your shirt in a little better....nice watch......anyway...the whole stack is leaning at around a 15º lean.

   So, the ocean floor in this area is comprised of layers, the first of which is mud and silt, this transitions to a mix of what's called " mudstone",( it's mud starting to compact into rock ) and mud mixed together. The solid rock starts at around an average of 200' in the area of the well-head. ..

..so the initial explosion that shot 2 casing sections into the top of the BOP stack, could not have come from all the way down the original well, the well is in the shape of a "dog leg ", or , a 90º angle, they were using a technique called horizontal drilling, I am sure you remember reading about this procedure. There is no physical way that those pipe sections could have traveled around the "dog leg "

....so that means there is damage at an area further up the bore around the bend, I was told at approximately 10k' ( from the ocean floor) for the first area of damage.

    The damage at the top of the wellbore is at right at the area of the mudstone/bedrock line/horizon. It's
around 200' under the BOP stack. When the initial sinking of the Horizon platform happened, the combined weight of the 5k' of riser pipe, and the platform itself , exerted enough push/pull on the wellbore structure to snap it at the rock/mud line. That's why it's leaning. The bore is set into solid rock...but only below the mudline.

....so they have capped the well. The pressure has slowly built and continues to build on a gradient. That means that natural bridging is occurring, ( "bridging" just means voids and cracks being filled by particulates in the fluid ). So this is good. It means as the fluid continues to travel horizontally, the particulates pack the cracks as it goes.

   So the wellbore is damaged/bent close to the surface, but largely structurally integral, otherwise they wouldn't have added another 75k short tons to the top of the BOP stack. And there wasn't a massive blowout, subsurface around the wellhead. That's a good indication too.

Watching the latest video from Kenny, I hear these facts.

" we have measured the temperature of the oil at the well riser ( at the floor) and it has cooled to the ambient temperature of the water."

...ok...water temp at this depth is 37ºf. So any oil drifting sideways through the bedrock, should logically be much warmer if and when it seeps from the seafloor, and as a result, easier to see, the temperature does drop rather rapidly when it contacts the seawater, but the surrounding mud and rock would be easily readable with infrared, they would show up as being warmer if they were leaking from a not-normal source.

" We have tested and analyzed the gas from around the wellhead and it is nitrogen ( confirms the analysis of the oil I have ) and around 14-15% biogenic methane, which indicates that it is local, and not from the resevoir."

...not so fast Kenny,..your lie is revealed by your body language and facial tics, but also by the things I already know.. , biogenic methane production is known to occur in oil reservoirs at temps up to 300º c. . And nitrogen hydrates do not form at the depth and temps of the reservoirs...they form above them in rock layers....otherwise they would melt if heat contacted them.....oh wait........there was 1900ppms of nitrogen in the oil...and more than 20ppms of methanol....which dissociates..or " releases gas " from hydrates at a disproportionate rate.....So there is definitely damage between 200' and 10k' in the wellbore, .....and also, ....they lied on the application when they said there were no chemo-synthetic communities within 1500' of the borehole site. Gotcha on that one.

...so now the questions I have are:

" If the gradient of pressure buildup is what was displayed on the video from BP, than that means that the oil is migrating under the seafloor......so if bridging has occurred while the fluid travels....than will you blow out these "bridges" when you pump in the mud...?"

" How will your thixotropic cement stand-up to sulfuric compounds in the fluid, if it being exposed to sulfite containing rock... ?"

" What is your plan of action after you get the well killed and cemented...how will you deal with the stack of equipment on the ocean floor....can you cut it off.....? "

" Was the bore casing in the well reused...?....Was the hydrogen baked out of it to ensure integrity...?....or are you cementing a brittle pipe...?

" How will you deal with the leg of gas that has built up in the stack of equipment...? "

...anyway, best of luck to you guys, I am going camping with a telescope for 2 days on top of a mountain,..there's massive thunderstorm warnings for the area...this should be interesting....see you guys in 2 days....I hope....ulp.